When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
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แน€14k
Jan 1
0.7%
By end of October 2025
0.7%
By end of December 2025
13%
By end of March 2026
48%
By end of June 2026
64%
By end of August 2026
80%
By end of December 2026
Resolved
NO
By end of December 2024
Resolved
NO
By end of June 2025
Resolved
NO
By end of March 2025
Resolved
NO
By end of February 2025
Resolved
NO
By end of April 2025
Resolved
NO
By end of May 2025
Resolved
NO
By end of August 2025
Resolved
NO
By end of September 2024
Resolved
NO
By end of June 2024

Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a Starlink satellite (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit

Otherwise, answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)

Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch

Any type of Starlink satellite counts as long as Starlink is in the name (eg Starshield would not count despite being a close derivative)

Additionally, the Starlink satellite must be technically capable of functioning (i.e. starlink mass simulators or dummy starlinks wouldn't count), though whether the satellite actually functions successfully or not once in orbit is irrelevant

UTC is used

Related markets:

/Nat/when-will-starship-first-deploy-a-c

/TimDuffy/will-spacex-deploy-any-starlink-sat

/chrisjbillington/will-starshipsuper-heavy-deliver-a

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sold แน€1 YES

Presumable if dummies are named 'Dummy Starlink' that will not count regardless of whether deployed to suborbital or orbit?

@ChristopherRandles Ah yes, good catch, yeah only starlinks that are technically capable of being functional should count, will update the description to match

filled a แน€10 NO at 45% order

Added some new dates

Resolving 'By end of December 2024' to NO as I believe the following information is sufficiently conclusive (next launch not till next year and still suborbital)

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