I. the OG no holder, am poised to win this market. Here is a brief retrospective

On March 13th Putin responded to Ukraine's ceasefire offer with an extreme response designed to be rejected, including demands that Ukraine demoralize. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp8l00l4rejo.amp

This came just after the white house blow up with Zelensky and some commentators felt that Tfump was just pro putin and trying to give putin ukraine. I felt this was wrong and that Marco Rubios account of the admins strategy (trying to end the war bc mutually hurting stalemate) fit their behavior and was pretty reasonable, parsimonius.

This market seemed a decent weather vane for whether trump was pro putin or pro ceasefire, because Putins conditions were objectively outrageous.

Anyway, it looks like the Nos won. Trump did not asfaict comment directly on Putins "offer" but has started he is angry with putin and ghat putin is delaying the deal. I doubt trump changes in the next day or two

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-trump-sanctions-threat-kremlin-says-russia-us-working-ukraine-peace-moves-2025-03-31/

Anyway I think people overreacted to the Trump Zelensky public argument.

so if there is no ceasefire how does this resolve?

@HillaryClinton it could resolve either way. It is purely a market about whether trump make statements supporting Putins most extreme demands.

Thanks for making this Nate!
FYI here is the twitter discussion the post came from https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1900244709567795300