Will Trump sign a deal with Ukraine providing military support in exchange for rare earths by the end of 2025?
Basic
26
Ṁ1703
2026
40%
chance

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-donald-trump-asks-zelenskyy-half-ukraine-rare-minerals-military-support/

For the purposes of this market, "military support" is defined broadly. Deploying US soldiers obviously counts, but so does providing weapons or other resources.

The spirit of the market is that anything along the lines of the deal under discussion would be a YES.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Apparently the US administration is pretty greedy and also doesn't want to give security guarantees. It doesn't look too good: https://www.politico.eu/article/us-donald-trump-asks-zelenskyy-half-ukraine-rare-minerals-military-support/

Ukraine is not going to want to sign a deal that doesn't include the europeans in some way. Trust that the US's word is good is not high. And so far it's looking like the european states want a deal which puts Ukraine on a path to NATO membership. Difficult to see how this plays out.

It's in the interest of the russians to put the demand of Ukraine not joining NATO at the highest priority, so they can attack them again in a few years time. It's likely that the Russians will interpret any 'security deal' Trump signs with Ukraine to be worthless.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@MalachiteEagle the great thing about a rare earths for military deal is that it doesn't need trust. If the military doesn't arrive then you don't give up the rare earths.

@MartinRandall not if the security deal doesn’t include a peacekeeping force

@MalachiteEagle then the Russians take the rare earths and the US doesn't get them.


The official added that the U.S. scheme “might not work” as it could fall afoul of  Ukrainian law.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules