Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Premium

156

Ṁ70k

2028

36%

Other

22%

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

1.8%

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

1.6%

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

1.6%

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

1.4%

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

1.3%

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

1.2%

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

1.1%

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Resolves 50% each to the two people who are the nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties in 2028, at the end of whichever national convention happens second.

Any change in the nominees after the conclusion of the second convention will not effect the resolution of this market.

Additional likely candidates will be added by the house as necessary and will split off from "other". Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

2028 Election

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 US Politics

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AOC, Ro Khanna, Shawn Fain should be added

Mike Johnson could be the first sitting member of the House to be elected president since Garfield

Since this market resolves at 50% for the democratic nominee, Kamala is way overpriced at 35% (taking the 2024 odds for Kamala she should be priced at 0.5 * 0.53 = 26.5%).

sold Ṁ475 YES

Oh crap, I completely misunderstood this market.

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