Another 5,000 limit order on Newsom YES at the current probability

How on earth is Kamala Harris at 4%? Surely it would be insane to re-nominate the candidate that just suffered the worst electoral defeat in recent history

@TheAllMemeingEye Kamala lost by basically the same electorally as Trump in 2020 and he was renominated

@TheAllMemeingEye

I agree it would be insane given her weakness as a candidate, but 49.8% to 48.3% is pretty tight for presidential election standards. Both Hillary and Biden beat Trump by a larger margin than that.

@Tripping Kamala lost both the electoral college and the popular vote, meanwhile Hillary won popular vote but still lost the electoral college.

It seems a reasonable inference that the bias of the electoral college towards smaller, rural, conservative states means that to win you need a democratic party candidate that's likely to not just barely win the popular vote, but win it by a landslide, just to even have a chance of winning the electoral college by a large enough margin that the republicans don't think it was swung by rigging and storm the capital.

@TheAllMemeingEye while the electoral college does give more electors per voters to smaller rural states those states are mostly locked in for republicans. What really determines the outcome of the election is the tipping point states. For instance in 2008 the tipping point state was Colarado which had a democratic bias relative to the country as a whole. Kamala did about as well in the tipping point state as she did among the general population, while biden did worse. It’s reasonable to think whoever the democrat is in 2028 could do even better in key swing states if they keep it up with suburban voters who dominate in the current swing states.

I think a more salient factor here is that Trump's base did not think he lost the 2020 election, whereas Harris's base thinks she lost the 2024 election. Excluding Trump, it's been over 50 years since a losing candidate was renominated.

Also, Harris dropped out very early in the last primary she participated in.

@TheAllMemeingEye Kamala was handed the hot potato of Biden's failed run, and expected to hail mary a tough election. She might still be(is, tbh) a poor candidate, but this election was no indictment of her. If anything, she overperformed expectations because what was supposed to be a foregone L looked 50/50 until the very end

@dlin007 I suppose I'm thinking in terms of the public perception of her rather than the actual statistical analysis of her performance, I get the impression that the public now considers her a laughing stock and a failure, which seem like they would lead to a repeat low morale and low turnout

@TheAllMemeingEye i basically agree, and there's <1% she gets renominated but i just wanted to defend her honor after this slanderous smear ;)
> the candidate that just suffered the worst electoral defeat in recent history

10,000 limit order on Newsom @ 15%

add Joe Neguse

I bet AOC up here.

I was originally of the opinion that this was a lock for Shapiro, but if Trump expands his cuts to programs that affect the poor, then I think it's more likely that the country swings back hard left to correct.

Since the power of the Presidency has become more and more absolute over the years, I could see a lot of people wanting her as a populist dictator who gives out money to the people, sort of like how in Central America people have come to power promising the same thing.

@SteveSokolowski why would the Dem nomination be a "lock" for Shapiro lol?

@dlin007 Because the country's attitude was different at the time I said that.

I don't think it's likely that the US will continue as a democracy anyway with fair elections anymore. But if it does, then it will continue the back and forth seesaw after one side pushes too hard.

In his first term, Obama was actually pretty centrist, refusing the end the Iraq War for example and signing the ACA without the public option. That meant there wasn't a hard turn after his first term. Trump, in his first term, was also pretty centrist in his actions, disregarding what he was saying.

Biden was not; he used executive actions just like Trump with his pardons and the student loan forgiveness and more, and paid for that as the country swung hard the other direction.

@DylanSlagh Assuming he runs for Michigan's open Senate seat, either he wins and almost certainly doesn't want to be seen as immediately abandoning the seat to run for President, or he loses and gets a big reputational stain a la Beto O'Rourke.

@Kraalnaxx also he’s gay. Let’s be honest. That’s still disqualifying from an electability perspective

@FoxKHTML Unfortunately it's a detriment, but that doesn't really have anything to do with the difficulties of running for Senate immediately before running for President.

@Kraalnaxx wait, why would he run for a Michigan senate seat when he built up his reputation as mayor of a city in Indiana?

@TheAllMemeingEye Senator position is more prestigious, and if he fails to get elected President he could keep the seat afterwards.

Guys I hate to break it to you but there’s no way Stephen A Smith is gonna win the Democratic primary

@PaperBoy I'm holding out hope for Dianne Feinstein, Jimmy Carter, or [Duplicate - Invalid].

@PaperBoy Bookmark

@Extremelyaccurate Hate to say it paper boy but there’s no whiskey in your blood. Stepshen A Smyih to 10%

@Extremelyaccurate