2028 Democratic nominee?
2028 Democratic nominee?
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117
Ṁ71k2028
34%
15%
Gavin Newsom
8%
Josh Shapiro
8%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
7%
Pete Buttigieg
6%
Kamala Harris
5%
Cory Booker
4%
No 2028 Election
4%
Gretchen Whitmer
3%
Tim Walz
2%
Jared Polis
2%
Andy Beshear
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially nominated by the Democratic Party for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election, as confirmed by the party's official announcement or at the Democratic National Convention. If no candidate is nominated, it will resolve to "No."
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27% chance of nominating the governor of the most "woke" state after Trump was elected in party on a backlash to that. I suppose the pendulum could swing again. But I expect the post-Trump backlash to be driven by economic concerns.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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