Will China nerf its AI industry before the US does?
Plus
23
Ṁ20232031
75%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if China imposes any new restrictions or otherwise intentionally slows down AI progress, BEFORE the US does.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@LarsDoucet how does this relate to your resolution criteria? https://www.fasken.com/en/knowledge/2023/08/chinas-new-rules-for-generative-ai
@RobertCousineau I don't think you can really argue that anything in these new rules will 'nerf' or slow down AI progress in China. The intent is obviously to give the government tools to make sure people cannot use generative AI to produce content the gov deems illegal
@Thekla what new restrictions have been implemented? The draft below is awaiting comments until 11MAY2023.
Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?
45% chance
Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
65% chance
Will Microsoft shut down it's A.I Lab in China?
30% chance
Will China announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024?
29% chance
Will the US enact high-skilled immigration reform to help win the AI race against China?
33% chance
By 2030 will China have reached AI flops/$ parity with the US?
37% chance
Will China block pi.ai before 2025?
31% chance
Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2024?
29% chance
Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
14% chance
Will EITHER US AI regulation or AI misuse (by user) cause significant crash/decline in a tech (AI) stock price in 2024?
36% chance