Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if either China or the US makes an official public announcement claiming to have achieved AGI. The announcement must come from a government entity, major AI research organization, or established tech company. Resolution will be based on the first credible announcement by either country, regardless of whether the claim is later disputed or contradicted by the scientific community. If both countries announce AGI on the same day, the market resolves YES (both are considered to have announced "first" simultaneously).

The market resolves NO if neither country announces AGI by December 31, 2030.

Background

AGI would match or surpass human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks. However, there is no consensus within the academic community regarding exactly what would qualify as AGI, and few people agree on what AGI is—experts in computer and cognitive science, and others in policy and ethics, often have their own distinct understanding of the concept, making it difficult to interpret announcements about AGI or claims about its risks and benefits.

The United States tends to define the competition in terms of the race toward AGI, that is, self-improving artificial intelligence which surpasses the cognitive power of human beings and is capable of executing real-world knowledge work tasks. In January 2025, Chinese AI company DeepSeek released R1, an open-source reasoning model that performed comparably to some of OpenAI's top offerings at a far lower price. Its arrival shattered the assumption, widely held in Washington at the time, that the U.S. maintained a comfortable lead over China in AI.

Considerations

The definition of AGI itself remains contested. Some major research labs have redefined AGI to mean a computer program that can perform as well as, or better than, expert humans at specific tasks, while traditionally, when people talked about AGI, they meant machines that supposedly had free will and approximated human abilities. This definitional ambiguity means announcements claiming AGI may not represent the same technological achievement. Additionally, the point at which AI crosses over into AGI, as models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed, might not be obvious.