What organization will first create superintelligence?
What organization will first create superintelligence?
Plus
22
Ṁ7072100
21%
OpenAI
15%
Anthropic
12%
DeepMind
18%
xAi
5%
Meta AI
29%
Subsidiaries will resolve to the "main" organization.
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@IsaacKing then it should be no problem to define what do you mean by this.
Anyways, the principal issue for this market is not merely whether it exists, but how to judge who achieved it.
Feel free to suggest other orgs for me to add BTW. (I didn't make it free response so as to avoid overlapping answers.)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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