Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake. When will SSI launch its first product?
For the purpose of this market, "product" means a paid product based on an AI foundation model, e.g. a chatbot, model API, or "wrapper app". This is meant to exclude minor, miscellaneous sources of revenue. Maybe this will create edge cases but I don't want to commit to resolving Yes the first year SSI has revenue >$0.
Update 2025-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Product Scope Update:
Products not based on SSI models are now included when evaluating whether SSI has launched its first product.
This specifically covers cases where SSI claims to have achieved superintelligence through scaffolding rather than by training their own model.
1,000
3.00updated the criteria slightly to include products not based on SSI models, because if SSI claims they've achieved superintelligence through scaffolding rather than training their own model, that should count. I don't think this should materially change the odds @cherrvak