1,000
3.00A related numeric question: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/when-will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-in?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y
Arbitrage opportunity between this market and the market below:
https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-ai-first-get-imo-gold-in-2026?r=cGw
I personally think this market is overvalued and will lose price in the next years.
To profit off this earlier I created the following derivative market that will resolve earlier. Please bet YES on that market if you disagree with me 😄
A plain English reading of this market seems very likely NO just because AIs do not appear eligible for the IMO under the current rules. Will this market instead use the IMO Grand Challenge resolution criteria?
A digital mind may compute with ease,
But math medals for AI? Pretty please.
Gold belongs to those with flesh and bone,
Let's leave the numbers to us alone.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00