Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030?
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42
Ṁ30802031
36%
BYD
34%
Tesla
15%
Waymo
13%
1.1%
Zoox
Miles driven, regardless of “level of autonomy”; will resolve to the top-3 players based on their relative market share.
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BYD was already doing 100k rides per day in Jul 2024, while Waymo is doing 29k rides per day in Mar 2025. The US market is 1/4 the size of China so unless Waymo expands internationally, this seems like it will go around 80% to BYD.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-11/alphabet-s-waymo-to-offer-self-driving-rides-in-silicon-valley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W9Y44m3lyI
@DavidFWatson same question. China already has self-driving taxi between cities (Shenzhen-Guangzhou)
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