Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030?
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Plus
42
Ṁ3080
2031
36%
BYD
34%
Tesla
15%
Waymo
13%
Other
1.1%
Zoox

Miles driven, regardless of “level of autonomy”; will resolve to the top-3 players based on their relative market share.

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BYD was already doing 100k rides per day in Jul 2024, while Waymo is doing 29k rides per day in Mar 2025. The US market is 1/4 the size of China so unless Waymo expands internationally, this seems like it will go around 80% to BYD.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-11/alphabet-s-waymo-to-offer-self-driving-rides-in-silicon-valley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W9Y44m3lyI

@Pepe that is if they won't go bankrupt

Is this supposed to be US only?

@DavidFWatson same question. China already has self-driving taxi between cities (Shenzhen-Guangzhou)

If level of autonomy doesn't matter, shouldn't GM or Toyota be higher than Tesla? GM and Toyota drive cars drive far more miles per year than Teslas.

@Gigacasting If "level of autonomy" doesn't matter, what does this question have to do with self-driving at all? I should buy GM just because they sell the most generic cars.

Yes the title absolutely should be changed. Currently very misleading

14,000 cabs in New York (1 per 1000 people)

92% of households own cars and not into

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