Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
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I'll define major as largest 10 metro areas. For self-driving I'll use SAE level 3.
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I think self-driving cars will be more common by 2030, but not the primary mode of transportation, at least not in major U.S. cities. There are still too many challenges, from regulations and infrastructure to public trust and cost. Plus, cities like NYC and Chicago already rely heavily on public transit, so mass adoption might take longer. That said, I wouldn’t mind a self-driving Uber after a long night out. I recently had to call FasTrak customer service about a toll issue, and I can’t imagine how they’ll handle self-driving cars using express lanes.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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