Within a year of the election, will Trump publicly disparage Elon Musk?
This could be for any reason, provoked or otherwise. Things like belittling nicknames and personal insults would count, or "I never liked him anyway" type statements.
As this might be somewhat subjective, I won't trade.
1,000
3.00@notarealuser That's a reference to his standard line for people he's committed sex crimes against, and pedophiles and porn stars he has associated with in past. Probably won't apply to Musk, but who knows, Trump says many things.
@NoahRich When you hold NO, limit order for YES is implicitly a sell NO order... (when you hold both YES and NO, it is converted to M1).. the only disadvantage is that you need free mana to perform it)
@AIBear specifically you can check your "payout on YES" and adjust your bet so that your "max payout on NO" is approximately equal, then this is effectively a sell order.
Left-leaning media is going to push this narrative as hard and far as they can, far beyond reality, and I suspect this market is way overpricing the probability this will happen because of that.
Trump is not irrational, and he has massive benefits from siding with Musk. It's plausibile that Musk buying X was a necessary condition for Trump to win this election, and X remains the most influential Trump-aligned news platform. Breaking up with Musk could mean ceding back the control of the narrative to traditional media and left-aligned social networks.
Odds should be way lower imo
Trump needs Elon (& Elon-adjacent SV money) for the Midterms
Trump’s proposed appointments signal a shift away from traditional GOPers toward a coalition of ex-Democrats & anti-establishment types (RFK, Tulsi, Joe Rogan, Vivek, Gaetz etc) . Elon is integral to this strategy imo
Elon understands power and will seek to make himself as irreplaceable as possible to maximise the odds he can carry out his own agenda (faster launch approvals, deregulation, mars, AGI etc)
@elf That's incorrect. MSNBC reports that Musk is annoying Trump's team and won't go away. Buy YES
@elf but the base rate for trump having falling outs with his inner circle is pretty high (kelly, bannon, cohen, and most of his old cabinet)
@RicardoMeneghin CNN reports that Trump won't tolerate the decreased efficiency of government due to Musk's initiatives. How do you answer that?
@JonathanRay Correct me if I’m wrong but I think the majority of his fallouts came from traditional GOPers & DC insider types who were at odds with his vision. Both Elon & Trump seem more aligned given they’re outsiders in favor of reform.
I think Elon’s wealth, geopolitical significance (starlink + starshield ) , cultural influence (celebrity + ownership of X) make him categorically different than any of Trump’s previous allies
I am imagining how the conversations and interactions between these 2 are and it is making me hee-haw and giggling a little bit. Trump is the old school and this other guy is the immature little boy, like a son with no proper upbringing like the Trump family values (I know, I know, be you are knowing what I mean - suit, tie, no elbows on table, etc. like this). Presidency has not even starting yet, this guy really thinks he owns the presidency, Trump is going to tire with him soon! Elon just loaded with the cash, Trump needs it and owes him some action, but Elon is in the Ketamine induced daze, high as the kite. Probably needs the help but will not be getting it from yes men around. It is tragic? No. It is the meme!!!