Within a year of the election, will Trump publicly disparage Elon Musk?
This could be for any reason, provoked or otherwise. Things like belittling nicknames and personal insults would count, or "I never liked him anyway" type statements.
As this might be somewhat subjective, I won't trade.
Update 2025-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that for a statement to count as disparagement, it should be clearly bullying or belittling Musk specifically. An ambiguous statement (e.g., an anecdote about "a fat person" rather than a direct insult to Musk about his weight) may not count if:
It appears primarily intended to support a policy rather than to personally attack or distance from Musk.
It is accompanied by simultaneous positive statements about Musk.
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator elaborated that statements constituting 'back-handed praise' of Musk (e.g., comments that are 'not exactly nice' but are combined with explicit praise) do not meet the threshold for disparagement for this market. Such statements, on their own, are considered 'not particularly close to resolving the question' if they are not clearly bullying or belittling Musk specifically.
1,000
3.00Congrats to the people who thought this was a 50% chance thing back in January. The only scenario where I saw him doing that was with this level of crashout. And I am not getting the impression anyone expected what just happened!
@AGucci The man had a 92% staff turnover rate in his first presidency and has developed antagonistic relationships with 60% of his advisor since 2016. Trump almost always crashes out.
@JasonQ easiest pretend money I've ever made. Trump and Musk are both notorious assholes who do not take disagreement well. Them having a public falling out was inevitable.
@becauseyoudo That is crazy. I thought some of his image as impossible to get along with was a media thing. If I knew that stat I might've reconsidered my bet! Even here, it felt like it was more because of Elon crashing out than trump doing anything.
Nickname guessing challenge! If you can guess the nickname Trump gives Elon in the comments of the linked market, I will send you 420 + 69 mana.
@BrunoJ what I'm learning is that "nothing ever happens" isn't a good prior anymore on Trump related markets.
