At the start of 2025, Elon Musk was on good terms with Trump, being appointed to new positions and interacting closely with Trump’s transition team. However, there are reports that he’s facing backlash from Republicans who see him as overstepping or trying to replace Trump, and they have now been fighting on social media. Will Musk be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?
It does not matter what happens throughout the year, only the state at the end of 2025. Resolves N/A if either of them die before the end of the year, unless I am extremely confident that one party had the other killed (in which case the market would resolve as NO).
Resolves based on my subjective opinion of the news. I aim to be neutral and objective when resolving, but ultimately this will be subjective.
1,000
3.00They're at each other's throats again.
@Gabrielle In a hypothetical perfectly neutral case where for the rest of the year Elon doesn't even mention Trump, doesn't tweet anything political, and there's no rumours of discussion or disagreement between him and the administration; and Trump doesn't mention Elon or his companies, and none of his policies are explicitly beneficial or harmful to Elon -
How would this resolve?
@Gabrielle Do you consider them on good terms now? They stopped feuding on Twitter, but as far as I can tell, they're not speaking to one another at all.
Elon also continues to snipe at other people in the administration: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/musk-labels-key-trump-aide-a-snake-white-house-feud-simmers
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'd lean towards NO right now, but I'd need to do more research before deciding for certain. As that article states, Elon is feuding with the Trump administration, and I find it hard to say that he's on good terms with Trump while also feuding with his administration.
What does it mean to be on good terms?
Trump’s publicly signaled that he’s ending things.
Is the market now betting on whether this decision will be reversed by EOY?
@KJW_01294 Correct, it’s about what the state will be at the end of the year, so they can still make up
Possible improvement in relationship
@DozenDucc seems like we are about to have the most stupid debate ever about what "being on good terms" means
@256 I'm neutral. Just bailed on this market. But for kicks, we can start a list.
non-serious - seen holding hands, singing together, skipping in a field.
serious (none seem likely by end of 2025 at this point, but who knows) - joint appearances, Musk wearing Trump or MAGA hat again, Musk announcing renewed contributions, Trump endorsing or expressing appreciation of Musk businesses, dining together, sincere endorsement of each other's social media posts.
@Balasar I don’t particularly want to have to assess that likelihood as part of this market, but if I am extremely confident that one had the other killed then I would resolve NO in that case.
@gamedev I don't think there's any coming back from this. Neither Trump nor Elon is the kind of person to apologize and make amends.
@spiderduckpig In the case that Elon's continued accusations are damaging enough to Trump's image, Trump may choose to capitulate. So in this scenario, Elon is using the accusation to make Trump give up and become buddies again.
This is unlikely, but is the only plausible scenario I can imagine.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Agree but this is a whole different level of professional wrestling we're all watching and there are a lot of incentives for both parties to work something out. Not incredibly likely but I think more than 15%
@spiderduckpig many things I have long thought impossible in politics have not only come to pass, but in the most insane and theatrical way possible. I could see it happening
@TiagoChamba It does get to a point where he paints a bad enough picture of Trump that it would make no political sense for Elon to, say, go back to working with Trump after insinuating he is a pedophile (I can imagine the press conferences now), but who knows with these people