Will Donald Trump repay Elon Musk's backing in good faith?

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Will the Trump administration offer Elon Musk a decent return for the time, effort, and political capital that he spent on backing Donald Trump?

Resolves NO if in my best guess based on public or shareable info, it looks like Donald Trump did not repay Elon Musk's backing, actively undermined Musk, decided that he was on the outs with Musk without Musk having previously clearly acted against Trump, etcetera. Resolves YES if my subjective judgment is that Musk struck first, or Trump acted in good faith until the point of a mutual break. If Trump doesn't specifically act against Musk, but Musk receives little or nothing in exchange for backing Trump, resolves NO.

This would resolve NO if Musk receives as little for backing Trump as Peter Thiel received for backing Trump in the 2016 election cycle. (E.g., Jim O'Neill was previously tipped to become FDA head, but did not become FDA head.) (I am open to hearing about how Trump repaid Thiel and I didn't hear about it yet.)

May resolve YES early if it's clear early in the Trump administration that Trump is already making a good-faith effort to fully repay Musk's backing, even if they end up on the outs later.

This isn't limited to selfish repayment; it counts if Musk obtains altruistic political desiderata.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-17/trump-team-said-to-want-to-ease-us-rules-for-self-driving-cars

@LeifKBrooks I'd argue this alone is a YES for Musk, YES for progress, and YES for this market.

@CryptoNeoLiberalist The alliance between Caesar and Crassus lasted for seven years and only ended when Iranians killed the latter. The dynamics was as similar as it gets to Trump & Musk.

BTW here's what the great Elon has to say about him:

@skibidist DOGE go up!!!

bought Ṁ12,000 YES

doge

bought Ṁ350 NO

lol

bought Ṁ50 NO from 85% to 83%

He still likes him

They are going to start getting tired of this guy. He doesn't fit the Trump family aesthetic. Only a matter of time before Barron says "Dad, this guy is so cringe. He's a tool, let's sunset him. He needs us more than we need him."

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Predictor i think it's already happening. insane that this is a real quote

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4987984-house-senate-republicans-leadership-election/

What liberals think is happening ↑

What is actually happening ↓

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113472884874740859

2 traders bought Ṁ750 YES

@DogmaticRationalist God damn.

@EliezerYudkowsky Eh, I'd wait and see. DOGE could easily be mostly pencil pushing to keep Musk and Ramaswamy busy but without significant power.

opened a Ṁ6,000 YES at 85% order

@Kraalnaxx if you wanna buy NO shares at this price i got some limit orders up

Seems like a good start for Musk so far.
(As to what duration of time this lasts, time will tell.)

bought Ṁ400 YES

В России есть поговорка: Трамп всегда заплатит. Если не в рублях, то в жопе. 🍆

@AltPutin 🤣

https://x.com/carolinegruyter/status/1855235419098497261?s=46

Looks positive so far

@verditude Pffffffft. But also yes.

How much is there to repay?

Tesla price increased from $242.84 before election to $321.22 which has increased Musk wealth from like ~$250Bn? to $304bn.

Was Musk just doing from self interest and this has already been worth the effort such that there is nothing that Trump needs to repay?

@ChristopherRandles it could be possible that the Tesla price increase is from shareholders anticipating Trump enacting policies favorable to Musk. If Trump unexpectedly ended up not doing that, I could see Tesla price dropping as a result

@AmmonLam What are some policies that might be good for Tesla? Maybe tariffs on Chinese EVs?

@AmmonLam Well said. "Markets are hard to predict because markets are predictions."

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