What will happen to Trump's tariff war in 2025? (Add answers)
8
Ṁ134Dec 31
85%
Trump will make and sign a deal with at least one country
67%
Trump will back down against China.
62%
Trump will unpause "reciprocal tariffs" after 90 days.
50%
Trump will make with intent to sign a deal with China
50%
Trump will make with intent to sign a deal with Canada
50%
Trump will make with intent to sign a deal with Mexico
46%
Trump will make with intent to sign a deal with the EU
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves based on Trump's tariff policies and actions in 2025. I encourage those who add questions to comment with their resolution criteria. Otherwise I will apply my own judgement and precisify where I can.
Update 2025-04-11 (PST): - Affected Countries: Reciprocal tariffs should be applied with a threshold covering at least 70% of the relevant countries. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Donald Trump reduces tariffs on China before 2026?
96% chance
Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025
19% chance
Congress passes law against Trump's tariffs in 2025?
19% chance
Will US tariffs be higher in 2025 than 2024?
95% chance
What will happen by the end of 2025 under President Trump's tariff policies?
Will the tariffs be successful in bringing back manufacturing to the US ? (2026)
-
Will Trump lower tariffs for China by the end of July 2025?
88% chance
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Congress successfully passes a bill into law limiting Trump's tariffs in 2025
7% chance
What will be the highest effective US tariff rate on China by EOY 2025?