What will happen by the end of 2025 under President Trump's tariff policies?
5
Ṁ322Dec 31
18%
Trump keeps tariffs, and no recession occurs
32%
Trump keeps tariffs, and a recession occurs
27%
Trump removes tariffs, and no recession occurs
24%
Trump removes tariffs, and a recession occurs
This market asks which scenario will occur by December 31, 2025, regarding President Trump's tariff policies and economic outcomes.
Definitions:
Recession: Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth
Removal of tariffs: Tariffs reduced to well below 10% for most countries, effectively ending the trade war
The market will resolve to the option that occurs by the end of 2025. If none of the scenarios occur exactly as described, the market will resolve N/A.
Resolution will be based on official GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) and tariff policies as documented by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (https://ustr.gov/).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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