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Unless otherwise specified:
"Trump bans" refers to Trump or the US government, but actions, like "Trump says X" refers only to Trump. I expect the intent to be pretty clear. (If not, I reserve the right to modify the phrasing to make it clearer; ping me if you find an option unclear)
"Trump" refers to the person that was president of the US in 2017-2021.
If something is not known to have happened, unless otherwise specified, it would resolve NO. For example, the option "Trump gets COVID" resolves NO unless it is announced or sufficiently confirmed, despite the possibility that he gets covid without announcing it. The intent here is to resolve YES when the balance of evidence clearly indicates the option prediction happened.
"Trump's Second Term" is the time between Jan 20 2025 and Jan 20 2029, so long as the US continues to exist and Republicans remain in power in the White House. Trump dying doesn't end Trump's Second Term for the purposes of this market.
I reserve the right to cancel any option that doesn't seem relevant / unconnected to trump / etc. If a question is ambiguous, please ping the question creator for clarification. If they don't clarify within a few days, ping me and I'll decide how it's disambiguated.
Consensus of credible reporting will be used for this market's resolution. I am not following Trump's every move so I'd very much appreciate @s when options need to be resolved. If I don't reply within a day, you can keep repinging me, or dming me if that's a recurring issue. I try to see creator pings but may miss some.
Update 2025-17-01 (PST): - Clarification on "Trump discloses aliens are real":
Refers to Trump stating that aliens have interacted with or visited Earth.
Does not include aliens located 5 trillion light years away outside the observable universe. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-17-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Trump discloses Aliens are real refers to scenarios where:
Aliens have interacted with humans
Alien technology has been found
Aliens have visited Earth
Does not include aliens located 5 trillion light years away outside the observable universe.
Update 2025-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
The option will resolve YES only if Trump stops being acting president after he has officially become president and before his term ends.
In-ceremony irregularities, such as brief procedural moments at the start of the term, do not trigger a YES resolution.
This clarification emphasizes the spirit of the market, focusing on the scenario where Trump ceases to be acting president during his term, after already assuming the office.
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3.00@AlexanderTheGreater drones not missiles are being discussed: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-administration-weighs-drone-strikes-mexican-cartels-rcna198930
@TheAllMemeingEye Does this have to be a formal declaration of war (to my knowledge, last done 1942 in WW2), or would a significant military action involving US troops on the ground (such as Afghanistan, Vietnam) count for yes?
@DavidTucker copied from earlier comments:
thepurplebull:
Does this mean he has to sign a formal war declaration? Or can Trump just authorize military action?
Me:
let's say the latter, since I suspect he's quite likely to make a bunch of hyperbolic statements about being at war without any real substance. For it to count though, in addition to authorising military action, it should probably also require some sort of objective to at least temporarily capture / recapture / defend populated territory, to distinguish it from e.g. a standalone airstrike to assassinate a specific target.
I'm pretty sure Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan would all meet this criteria
@njmkw @Bayesian does this count? https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-03-27/justice-department-california-universities-race-dei-admissions
@Marnix If you're still considering N/Aing stuff to make way for other questions, I'd recommend this one. I'm suspecting people are misinterpreting it as "shift in general consensus of societal status" instead of "ending to poorly animated anti-woke series on Twitter" (and, frankly, it's not really all that interesting of a question).
@TheAllMemeingEye would things like "habeas corpus" and "joie de vivre" count as loanwords? How about a film title?
@MingCat In general I would count any phrases that appear in mainstream English dictionaries or Wikipedia lists of foreign language phrases in English as being loaned and thus not resolving yes.
As for media titles, let's say that if that media was released in the US with the title containing foreign language words, then that title when used to refer to that media is also loaned, but if coincidentally using the same phrase not referring to the media, or if using the original language title when the US release version had the title translated to English, then that would not be loaned and could resolve yes.
@Kraalnaxx it appears here, so I would consider it a loan word (or I guess technically a loan phrase)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glossary_of_French_words_and_expressions_in_English
@MalachiteEagle @Bayesian My argument for this one is that there is a causal link between the trend spike for the term "vibes" and Trump's election in 2016
Utah’s signed a law that prevents trans pride flags from being displayed in schools and government buildings. The bill’s sponsor said on Twitter that the purpose was to “ban the Pride flag” specifically. The governor says he expects the legislation to be overridden but agrees with the premise of preventing “divisive” flags and “keeping classrooms neutral”
Should resolve YES?
@Bayesian time to resolve this one? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-jfk-assassination-files-released-2025/
@Marnix for clarity, I intended this to be "deported from the us," using the baseline of the deportations of Venezuelans to El Salvadorian prisons going on right now happening to a US citizen
did this already happen? I cant rly tell, seems like he signed smth on jan 20 that is kinda similar?
@Phill @Bayesian I think this counts as a YES resolution? https://ca.news.yahoo.com/us-deports-hundreds-venezuelans-despite-140611527.html?guccounter=1
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00