By what year will a majority of cars on US roads lack human drivers
10
Ṁ11542070
Invalid contract
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be determined by count of cars (not by miles traveled), ideally using car registration data or similar measures.
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Parked cars on streets/roads: Count toward resolution if they are registered as active
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
Do parked cars count if they're on a street or road?
@JoshYou while that would be a reasonable measure, my aim is to do this by count of cars. Ideally by car registration or some similar measure if I can find it.
Related questions
Related questions
Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?
57% chance
Full self driving cars will be legal with no need for human interaction in any country by the end of 2025?
14% chance
Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2026?
14% chance
When will a large majority of rideshare be done by self-driving cars?
Will it be illegal to drive a car in the US by end of 2040?
4% chance
Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
18% chance
Will 50% of US commuters travel via autonomous vehicles by 2030?
11% chance
By which year will there be self-driving cars in New York City?
Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?
49% chance