US Recession in 2025?
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32%
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Will there be two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth after revisions in 2025?
This includes spillover from the last quarter of 2024, so the ones that count would be:
2024 Q4 negative Q1 negative
Q1 negative Q2 negative
Q2 negative Q3 negative
Q3 negative Q4 negative
Resolving based on FRED US Real GDP series, after revisions. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1#0
I will wait until the 3rd estimate for Q4 2025 is released, which should be sometime around the end of March 2026, plus some delay for FRED to reflect the updated figure.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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