By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess? | Manifold

By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?

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Currently most people would say they have a large amount of free will. Will there be enough studies and literature published by 2050 to reduce how scientifically literate people think about the degree of Free Will.

Examples: greater understanding of how environment, neurotransmitters, genetics and more influenced thinking and choices.

I'm not sure of a good quantitative way to measure the change. But it should be large enough that it's easy to agree by comparing common viewpoints across time.

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The emergence of high-quality consumer AGI systems will totally change how the average person thinks about all of the usual "what makes us human" questions. Consciousness, free will, etc

How does this resolve if the consensus is that 'free will' isn't a particularly meaningful concept, and/or is conflating multiple concepts, or something along those lines?

predictedYES

@adele I guess it would depend on the context at the end date. N/A if it’s too murky. Whatever the underlying concepts, currently a lot of people talk about discipline, making choices, self-control, and seem to demonstrate a belief they can make conscious decisions.

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