At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? | Manifold

At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

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If an intelligence explosion occurs, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:

Shortly after market close, I will post a Yes/No poll in this market's comments, in the Manifold discord, and/or in whatever other appropriate Manifold-related spaces exist at that time. It will ask:

Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?

This market resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the poll, rounded to the nearest integer.

The poll will be limited to one response per Manifold account, and the way everyone voted will be public.

All markets for each year:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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predictedNO

reason for buying no: I think we'll have either totally solved it or totally failed by then, and it will no longer be uncertain. As such, I think it's unlikely that we'll still be wondering and so won't be worried about it happening in the future.

@L Ah, that's a very good point. I'm going to change these markets to have the qualifier "if an intelligence explosion hasn't already happened" to fix that issue. I've tipped you Ṁ10 to make up for your NO bet, if anyone else had also bet NO based on similar reasoning, let me know and I'll reimburse you as well.

@IsaacKing ... oh. weird. okay. interesting.

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