Who will own Manifold at the end of 2024?
Basic
20
Ṁ507
resolved May 13
ResolvedN/A
84%
Founders (Austin, Stephen, James)
13%
Employees
2%Other
I'll resolve this market to the proportional equity distribution in our C Corporation at the end of 2024. FWIW Manifold's current cap table, at a $22M valuation, looks like: ~16% to all investors (see http://bit.ly/manifold-seed ) ~16.8% to the employee option pool ~22.4% to each founder (Austin, Stephen, James)
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@traders Stephen has assessed this is too hard to resolve given the answers provided and work it would require to back-calculate (the equity splits now are pretty different compared to what they were in 2024 given that James left recently and we redistributed shares to incentivize the remaining team members). Post a reply to me here if you'd like the full value of your shares as compensation.

@ian thank you!!

@ian wait so until recently you guys didn't even have records of company ownership, hence the need to back calculate? I've never owned a business so might be misunderstanding but having no record of ownership sounds insane lol

@TheAllMemeingEye ian's in the arena, you're afraid of your shadow

@TheAllMemeingEye we have a record of current ownership but no explicit versioning. We've issued shares to different people multiple times since then, changing the current breakdown. It'd be annoying to go back and undo the issuances to get the ownership numbers at that point in time.

@jim I don't quite understand what you mean

@ian right ok, thanks for explaining, would you be open to sharing how this would resolve if it was closing now rather than EOY 2024?

@jim he got that dawg in him

@TheAllMemeingEye @SG can you take a screenshot of what's on pulley?

reposted

@Manifold who owns you?

@mods should this resolve?

@PoliticalEconomyPK can ping creator to start @Austin

(& just ping mods again if they're unresponsive in a few days)

@mods again

@SG @ian can I pass this to one of you to resolve please?

@shankypanky ah yeah I can check this out

@shankypanky actually I think @SG has the numbers in a spreadsheet

@ian @SG @Austin @JamesGrugett - please, can we get this resolved? it's been closed since the end of 2024, and there have been lots of pings for resolution. 🙏

@shankypanky just dm'd stephen to see if he has the spreadsheet

sold Ṁ0 YES

Would y'all consider becoming an anarcho-syndicalist worker-owned co-operative?

Is this one of those markets where the results of the predictions affect the outcome? ;)
(Currently, FTX FF has invested in 7.5% of Manifold, via regrantor Linchuan Zhang)
Either Future Fund, or directly
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