Will Manifold go bankrupt before 2030?
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Manifold is currently a tiny company with potential. What do you guys think?
Will resolve YES if Manifold publicly announces they are going bankrupt.
Will resolve NO if otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Manifold will probably fail, but it's unlikely to formally declare bankruptcy.
It'd be more likely:
for people to leave to "pursue other interests"
to be bought for a paltry sum by Kalshi or Polymarket, just to remove a competitor
to get it running on a single server and for one of the founders to keep it in maintenance mode running cheaply forever
to close down the site and dissolve the company, without declaring bankruptcy
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