Clarification:
The correct answer will resolve to the earliest date. For example if AI takes 50% of human jobs in 2028 then the correct answer is 2030.
Resolution Criteria:
For a given date to be resolved to YES at least one of the following must occur:
The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 50% or higher
The labor force participation rate drops by 50% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%. In this context the LFPR should fall to 46.9% or lower.
Fine Print:
This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week. If that number goes from 40 hours/week to 20 hours/week or less that will not matter to the resolution of this question.
Background:
There is controversy on whether Al will take away human jobs. The way to resolve this is to know whether Al will create more jobs than it destroys. The best way to measure the net jobs is to calculate (new jobs - lost jobs) is the unemployment rate. The broader unemployment rate (U6) is used to include “discouraged workers” who have stopped looking for work. The broader unemployment rate (U6) should be sufficient for resolving this question. The Labor Force Participation Rate is used as a backup measurement in case the U6 unemployment rate turns out to be unreliable.
1,000
3.00@JosefMitchell based on historical circumstances: the great recession caused 10% unemployment. the great depression caused 25% unemployment. Therefore, the 50% unemployment rate would be catastrophic and never experienced in history of the US. The only cause of that would go beyond macroeconomic factors - the only explanation for 50% unemployment rate would be massive job losses from AI.