Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027? | Manifold

Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?

Basic

6

Ṁ239

2027

41%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The requirement are that such system exist and the general public knows about, either from a leak or an announcement, it doesn’t have to take the job, just that such system exist by the end of 2027, or at Friday, December 31, 2027.

It should be capable of doing 50% of jobs that exist in the year 2020, at least as good as the average person in those jobs, as cost efficient as the people in those jobs. It must be a single system and NOT a collection of system.

(Modified from LDJ’s HLSI benchmark)

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(My actual belief is < 5%, but I have huge uncertainty in how will this be resolved. )

If there is such a leak, how will you validate it? People talk a lot.. even about Strawberry, there were rumors about "median human benchmark". It may be on that level in particular tasks, but far from actually replacing the jobs.

@Irigi Leaks will have to be verifiable, likely by an official government whistle blower documents or by an employee under oath, but I doubt this question will will be resolved via a leak, it will likely be resolved via an official announcement

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