Will any model pass an "undergrad proofs exam" Turing test by 2027? | Manifold

Will any model pass an "undergrad proofs exam" Turing test by 2027?

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The model receives each question as text (or text + images), outputs an answer as text + images, and is graded as part of a pool with human students who also took the test. "Pass" means >=70% Has to be a proofs-based exam, e.g. abstract algebra, topology, linear algebra if it's proofs heavy. There are probably undergrad math exams *somewhere* that are very easy, so I will be exercising my judgment on whether the exam "counts". Unfortunately I do not have examples to hand of what I consider reasonable, but something like "would be a medium difficulty 200-level proofs exam at a top-tier university".

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Ultra-likely. Topology was almost trivial, especially comparable to IMO questions. I recall “prove at least 3 of 12 theorems” being the final exam, pretty sure an AI could blow past that even today. The handwriting and telling the AI not to be too giga-brained (make a few mistakes and don’t solve them all) would be harder than the solving.

(Not betting due to Gigacasting’s First Law of AI Optics: any research lab smart enough to pass a Turing test will be smart enough to know never to run one)

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