In what year will there be an AI capable of passing a high-quality Turing test?
Basic
14
Ṁ11902050
12%
2024
7%
2025
4%
2026
5%
2027
5%
2028
5%
2029
5%
2030
5%
2031
3%
2032
3%
2033
2%
2034
2%
2035
2%
2036
2%
2037
2%
2038
2%
2039
2%
2040
10%
2041
22%
The Turing test, originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing in 1950, is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human.
This is a companion market to /ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
This market has the same same resolution criteria as that market, but uses a dependent multiple choice format.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?
80% chance
Will AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030?
69% chance
Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?
59% chance
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
64% chance
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
59% chance
Will AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?
74% chance
From which country will originate the AI that first passes Manifold AI's high quality Turing Test?
In what year will human-level AI first exist?
2038
Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?
94% chance
In what year will an AI successfully beat The Talos Principle?