Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, the cumulative nameplate capacity of binding power purchase agreements (PPAs) for nuclear electricity explicitly linked to AI data center operations reaches or exceeds 15 gigawatts (GW).
To qualify, an agreement must:
Be legally binding, not a memorandum of understanding (MoU) or letter of intent (LOI).
Involve named counterparties, with at least one party identified as a cloud provider, AI lab, or hyperscaler.
Explicitly cite AI, cloud computing, or data centers as the intended energy use.
Verification will be based on credible public sources (e.g., company filings, reputable news, government documents). If total qualifying capacity is <15 GW by the deadline, the market resolves “No.”
Background
The rapid expansion of AI technologies has significantly increased energy demands, prompting major tech companies to secure substantial nuclear PPAs to power their data centers. Notable agreements include:
Google and Kairos Power: In October 2024, Google signed an agreement to purchase 500 megawatts (MW) from small modular reactors developed by Kairos Power, with the first reactor expected online by 2030. (blog.google)
Microsoft and Constellation Energy: In September 2024, Microsoft entered a 20-year PPA to restart the Three Mile Island Unit 1 reactor, aiming to supply approximately 835 MW to its data centers by 2028. (en.wikipedia.org)
Amazon and Talen Energy: In June 2025, Amazon secured a PPA for 1,920 MW from Talen Energy's Susquehanna nuclear power station to support its AI and cloud infrastructure, with full delivery expected by 2032. (carboncredits.com)
Meta and Constellation Energy: In June 2025, Meta signed a 20-year agreement to purchase power from the 1.1 GW Clinton Clean Energy Center in Illinois, aiming to support its AI operations starting in 2027. (apnews.com)
Oklo and Switch: In December 2024, Oklo signed a non-binding agreement to provide up to 12 GW of power to data center operator Switch over 20 years, though this agreement's binding status remains uncertain. (ft.com)
Considerations
Only Binding Agreements Count: MoUs, LOIs, and speculative deals (e.g., Oklo–Switch) are excluded unless converted to binding contracts by the deadline.
Intent Clarity: Agreements must explicitly reference AI, data centers, or cloud computing as the use case. Vague references to “enterprise use” or “digital infrastructure” do not qualify.
Timing Is Signature-Based: PPAs must be signed (not announced) on or before Dec 31, 2026, regardless of when energy is delivered.
Regulatory Risk Ignored: Delays in project approvals or plant commissioning do not affect resolution—only signed capacity counts.
Tech Giants Secure Nuclear PPAs for AI Energy Needs:
1,000
3.00Current AI-linked nuclear PPAs (~4.4 GW total)
All of the binding nuclear PPAs explicitly tied to AI/data centers announced so far add up to only a few GW – far short of 15 GW. In particular, tech companies have signed the following major deals (all cited to AI or data-center use):
Google – Kairos Power: 500 MW SMR deal (by 2035) to supply Google’s data centersutilitydive.com.
Microsoft – Constellation (Three Mile Island): 835 MW PPA (20 years) to restart TMI-1 for Microsoft’s data centersutilitydive.com.
Amazon – Talen (Susquehanna): 1,920 MW PPA (through 2042) to power AWS data centers in Pennsylvaniareuters.com.
Meta – Constellation (Clinton): 1,121 MW PPA (20 years, starting 2027) to keep the Clinton plant online for Meta’s AI goalsutilitydive.com.
Adding these (0.5 + 0.835 + 1.92 + 1.121 GW) gives about 4.4 GW of qualifying capacity. No other binding AI-specific nuclear PPAs of comparable size have been announced. (Notably, smaller projects or renewables do not count under the market’s criteria.)
Key wildcard (Oklo–Switch) is non-binding
The only much larger project on the table is the Oklo–Switch master agreement (up to 12 GW of SMR power to Switch’s data centers). However, this is explicitly a non-binding framework “establishing a path” for future PPAsutilitydive.com. Oklo’s own timeline expects first reactors ~2029utilitydive.com, well after the 2026 cutoff. Thus the Oklo–Switch 12 GW cannot currently count (and is unlikely to be signed as a binding PPA by end-2026). No other announced deals even approach a multi-GW scale beyond those listed above.
Implication for odds / probability
Because the known signed PPAs total only ~4.4 GW, and there are no other binding contracts large enough to bridge the ~10.6 GW gap before 2027, hitting the 15 GW threshold seems extremely unlikely. Absent a surprise multi-GW deal signed by 2026, the market is unlikely to reach 15 GW. In our judgment, the chance that total ≥15 GW by Dec 31 2026 is very low (on the order of single-digit percentages). The safest bet is “No” (i.e. total <15 GW).
Odds estimate: Given current information, we would assign the “Yes” outcome (≥15 GW) a very low probability – likely well under 10% – implying a corresponding very high probability for “No.”
Sources: Confirmed PPA sizes and AI use are documented in company announcements and news reportsutilitydive.comutilitydive.comreuters.comutilitydive.com. The Oklo–Switch deal (12 GW) is explicitly non-bindingutilitydive.com and timelines indicate no delivery by 2026utilitydive.com. These facts strongly suggest the 15 GW threshold will not be met.