2024 US Presidential Election Spread Betting (See description)
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23
Ṁ11k
Dec 1
98.9%
Florida: Trump -5.1
97%
North Carolina: Trump -1.6
96%
Pennsylvania: Trump -0.3
95%
North Carolina: Trump -1.1
95%
Arizona: Trump -1.3
95%
Arizona: Trump -2.3
95%
Nevada: Trump -0.5
95%
Georgia: Trump -1.2
95%
Georgia: Trump -1.7
95%
Texas: Trump -6.5
5%
Nevada: Harris -0.7
5%
Michigan: Harris -0.9
4%
Minnesota: Harris -5.9
4%
Pennsylvania: Harris -0.5
4%
Michigan: Harris -1.1
4%
Wisconsin: Harris -1
3%
Wisconsin: Harris -0.7

Popular vote margin of victory (between first and second place) in each state by percentage points.

Inspired by Nate Silver's bet: /Ziddletwix/nate-silver-100k-twitter-bet-will-t .

Spread betting explained here: https://www.fantasylife.com/articles/betting/what-is-spread-betting-everything-you-need-to-know

Spreads originally taken from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/#influential-races on 10/9/2024 at 21:00 PST

I may add multiple lines for the same state over time

If either nominee gets replaced for some reason, this market will instead use the odds for their party replacement (i.e. "Harris" is the same as "Democratic nominee")

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not looking good for harris in most states

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Election day @traders Results will start coming in in a few hours!

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ELECTION DAY @traders

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Three days until election day! Just added the latest predictions from FiveThirtyEight @traders

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Exactly one week left until the election!

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Manifold has Trump taking a lead in Georgia!

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Harris within a point in NC right now!

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Inspired by Nate Silver's 100k Florida bet

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