Will drone delivery of groceries be available to the general public in San Francisco by EOY 2026?
Will drone delivery of groceries be available to the general public in San Francisco by EOY 2026?
Basic
9
Ṁ353
2027
7%
chance

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026:

  • A drone delivery service for groceries is publicly available to general consumers (not just beta testers) within San Francisco city limits

  • The service is operational and accepting orders (not just announced or in testing)

  • Customers can place orders through a public-facing app or website

Details:

  • This market resolves YES if drone delivery is available to some, but not all, addresses within San Francisco.

  • This market resolves YES if at least 20 SKUs are offered for delivery that are identical or equivalent to SKUs carried by a grocery store or convenience store.

  • This market resolves NO if the general public cannot sign up for the app, and it's not just gated on location but on invitation/waitlist.

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2mo

Related market: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-anyone-be-able-to-get-a-ziplin

sold Ṁ8 NO2mo

Title: "Groceries". Description: "20 SKUs", "some addresses".

One guy offering chewing gum to his two neighbors would make this resolve YES.

2mo

@ScottW Thanks for pointing out an ambiguity!

In that example this market would NOT resolve YES as that does not involve a public-facing app or website accessible to anyone within a geofence, does not seem to involve the use of drones, nor an offering of at least 20 SKUs.

2mo

There, I made a website from which you can order 20 SKUs of chewing gum. If anyone in SF with a drone wants to ferry gum to two neighbors, I'll forward you the order data & we can wrap this up.

My point: A distributor of one brand of chewing gum is not a grocery store. Grocery stores have "between 15,000 and 60,000 SKUs".

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