resolve YES if the United States is formally given control of the Gaza Strip by Israel and begins administering it, even if they don't have complete control over it due to Hamas.
if the announced date of control is after the end of the year, this resolves NO
1,000
3.00@strutheo How do you resolve if the control is partial, temporary and shared (not only US but an international board of peace)?
@strutheo to be more specific, I assume if they agree to something similar to point 9 of Trump’s plan, this question resolves as YES:
“Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza. This committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members and heads of State to be announced”
Can you confirm?
In the video you posted in the description Trump explains the basic points of the peace plan he presented later (ceasefire, especial economic zone, remove weapons, ...)
@strutheo understood, thanks for responding.
When I listened to the video you posted as description, I noticed the concept of "US will take over the Gaza strip" was basically the same as it is unders discussion these days:
1) Israel will withdraw
2) ceasefire and disarmament. ISF replaces IDF
3) board of peace lead by US decides who are the technocrats who will rule Gaza
4) reconstruction, especial economic zone
etc.
so, the IDF "controls" the strip to some extent today, and this control is given to an international force lead by US (if the plan moves ahead)
But I also understand this is one possible interpretation of Trump's sentence "we will take over the Gaza strip", and you may have a different one. It is not really very clear, therefore my question.
@strutheo actually the video was not very specific about the authoritity, but on a second listening I noticed the sentence "we will own it" was pronounced by Trump
but your description sentence "the United States is formally given control of the Gaza Strip by Israel and begins administering it" implies
1) Israel gives the control they have to US. If today the only control Israel has is some military presence and the capacity to block movements of people and goods, giving to a global coalition lead by US the military presence and the task to open the movements of goods, aid and people... this seems like a control handover from Israel to US
2) "begins administering it" could be consistent with my previous comment of choosing the technocrats who will rule the strip
@strutheo Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) prepared in 2025 a proposal for Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA) Institutional Structure. Full text seems to be leaked by Haaretz here: blair-plan.pdf
Point 9 of Trump’s 20-point plan uses the same wording as GITA and suggests Tony Blaid to be part of the board.
Tony Blair met on October 12th 2025 with Palestinian Authority to discuss future governance.
We may infer Trump was taking GITA Blair’s plan as the future governance model for the transition.
If we read line 1 of chapter 1 of GITA: “Role: Supreme political and legal authority for Gaza during the transitional period.”, together with page 21 GITA Organizational Chart, together with “the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump” of point 9 on Trump’s plan, we may infer:
1) If a proposal similar to Blair’s GITA ends up implemented at Gaza by 2026, this market will resolve as YES
This market would then be a forecast of the chances of A) + B):
A) Next phases of Trump’s 20-point plan will be signed and executed
B) Trump’s plan is based in a interim structure where the international board chaired by Trump oversights/controls the Palestinian civil structure
Pure speculation, I couldn’t find the time for a deeper research on this.