Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?
Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?
Premium
7
Ṁ5202026
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
I will resolve this according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, during calendar year 2025, Israel establishes a formal government in the Gaza Strip headed primarily by Israelis or otherwise takes formal control of key territory in the Gaza Strip.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Israel annex any part of Gaza by the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will Israel annex a part of Gaza by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will Israel politically control Gaza after the 2023 Israel-Hamas war ends?
56% chance
Will Israel break ground on a settlement in Gaza by the end of 2025?
17% chance
Will construction of a permanent Israeli settlement in Gaza begin by the end of 2025?
13% chance
Will Israel occupy Gaza on a semi-permanent or permanent basis before 2025?
71% chance
Will Israel still have troops in the Gaza Strip at the end of 2025?
85% chance
Will Hamas control more than one square kilometer of contiguous territory in Gaza at the end of 2025?
36% chance
Will there be an election to replace Hamas in Gaza by the end of 2025?
11% chance