Will another unofficial mana financial service/product ran by users be shut down by Manifold by EOY 2026?
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Ṁ4668
2027
93%
chance

Can be anything from loans, to mana laundering, to investment schemes

Ignoring the last one: Mana for Bitcoin Exchange

Will not resolve if something is made for the purpose of interfering with this market!

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bought Ṁ2,500 YES

Namely, the Tumbles Financial Complex which was terminated by banning Tumbles off Manifold.

@AnT he's banned ???

@strutheo Yeah it looks so!

@strutheo You may be interested in story of how the Canadian PM market misresolved allowing Tumbles to print negative balance on main account and positive on his "cat assistant's"...

bought Ṁ50 NO

@AnT I don't think tumbles being banned means that "an unofficial mana financial service/product" has been shut down by manifold. There are parts of the TFC that are run by other users, so those are obviously not shut down automatically by Tumbles's absence

(Including my own /Fion/fions-loans )

@Fion I do take Tumbles' offers "send me X mana and it will be doubled by time T" as a financial service, and its attempted payouts have been clawed back by Manifold.

I could see a position claiming that Tumbles is getting bankrupt on his own efforts, but...

but the today's events included some mana printing and laundering (re-resolution of Canadian PM market while Tumbles sent mana to an alt) and that is included by this market.

@AnT yeah, I think that's mostly fair, but I also think it's relevant that his "attempted payouts" involved breaking the rules. Like, if you lend me 100k mana, I hack Manifold's website to create 100k mana to pay you back, and Manifold removes that mana and bans me... I don't see that as "a financial service being shut down".

Otherwise, any user who accepts a loan and subsequently gets banned can be considered "a financial service" getting "shut down", which doesn't seem in the spirit of the market to me.

And I don't think the misresolution shenanigans count as "a financial service" either. It was just a one-off violation of existing rules

All of the financial services listed in this dashboard are being shut down shortly, since managrams/manalinks/bounties are all being removed specifically to get rid of stuff like loans that makes mana look like a real currency to regulators.

bought Ṁ50 YES

This might be shutdown

@strutheo would a scheme that is already banned be able to trigger this market if someone tries it again? I assume the answer is no, but ambiguous enough to be worth asking I think

@Tumbles rephrasing to omit that one @nikki

opened a Ṁ16,969 YES at 69% order

bet NO if you want to incentivize me to be silly

there are so many financial services to be made in over 2 years. there are many ways to make it shady. it will happen.

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