Each option resolves yes when he makes statements or actions that act as evidence
They can be based off statements (Trump calls for...) or for actions he actually follows through on
In the case where he cant directly do it, getting his Congress or proxy to do so will be enough
Will make a poll for individual options if unsure
Update 2025-08-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only statements made while Trump is serving as President will count toward resolving statement-based answers; older or non-presidency quotes do not.
Update 2025-08-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory option, drone strikes count.
Any aggressive long-range attack that destroys or injures something inside Mexico counts (e.g., airstrikes, bombs, missile or drone strikes).
Update 2025-08-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the "coin or bill with his image" option: only circulating currency counts (coins/bills intended for general circulation by the government). Commemorative/non-circulating issues do not count; laws authorizing only commemoratives also do not count.
Update 2025-08-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the option 'request and successfully redraw 1/2 or more state districts':
"1/2 or more" refers to the number of states, not the number of individual districts.
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the "order the arrest of a governor by name" option: statements like a governor "should be" arrested do not count. It must be a clear, explicit order/command to arrest a named governor.
1,000
3.00
As a joke, I wanted to make a market option for, "Trump steps on and crosses any literal red line on the ground, such as a strip of red duct tape, a red stripe painted on the ground, or a red ribbon."
Then I realized he has had the red carpet laid out for him, and that's basically a YES from the get go. Oh well.
@Quroe There's already a market option for "literal red line" here. I'm not sure if a red carpet counts though.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Oh! You're right! And it's still unresolved.
I could certainly be persuaded that a long red carpet is basically a red line if you zoom out far enough if I were the market maker, but I'm not. Haha
@strutheo https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-restores-the-united-states-department-of-war/
restore the historic name “Department of War” as a secondary title for the Department of Defense
Confirming that this EO is not sufficient for this red line? "secondary title" and "non-statutory" documents seems like not enough to me.
@Marnix https://manifold.markets/BenM/flag-burning-prosecution-during-tru
I set up conditions over in the dedicated market. To me it has to make it to plea. Arrest and no charges or charges dropped after a headline don't rate in my opinion.
Requesting clarification on "request and successfully redraw 1/2 or more state districts"? is "1/2 or more" referring to the number of districts or to the number of states which redraw districts? is "state districts" referring to house districts in a state, state legislative districts, other sorts of state-localized districts (public service commissioners, etc), or some number of those?
@strutheo well it looks like they did pay for it. Honestly this seems towards the bottom of the list of things I dislike Trump for.