If there is scientific consensus we've discovered the first extraterrestrial life form, will it be silicon based?
If there is scientific consensus we've discovered the first extraterrestrial life form, will it be silicon based?
Plus
21
Ṁ8652200
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry
The element silicon has been much discussed as a hypothetical alternative to carbon. Silicon is in the same group as carbon on the periodic table and, like carbon, it is tetravalent. Hypothetical alternatives to water include ammonia, which, like water, is a polar molecule, and cosmically abundant; and non-polar hydrocarbon solvents such as methane and ethane, which are known to exist in liquid form on the surface of Titan.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
bought Ṁ20 NO1y
reposting my comment from a similar market on why this is almost certainly impossible based on our current understanding of chemistry: https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-there-be-scientific-consensus-3a4a63bb4fac#pgajtj0m8he
bought Ṁ35 NO1y
Resolves on the first ever confirmed extraterrestrial life form if there’s one ever found ?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will there be scientific consensus of the existence of silicon based forms of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2060?
14% chance
Where will the first-known extraterrestrial life come from?
Will we discover an extraterrestrial carbon based life confirmed by Nasa before 2150?
31% chance
If we ever come across a life form that didn't originate on earth, would it be mainly carbon based?
76% chance
If/When we find aliens will there primary molecule for life be carbon
87% chance
If abiogenetically distinct alien life is discovered in the solar system before 2070, where will it be first discovered?
When do we discover alien life?
Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?
16% chance
When will alien life be first discovered?
If we ever make contact with extraterrestrial life, would the first contact be on Earth?
21% chance