If we ever make contact with extraterrestrial life, would the first contact be on Earth?

If I line of free credit I would bet this down to 1% or less. The chance that aliens wipe out humanity
OR we can only communicate with aliens but not visit them except on crazy long timescales
OR we detect aliens and find a way to safely make contact at arms reach
OR we find aliens and zap them before they detect us
together make up more than 99%, imo

I don't see any reason why this would happen in the relatively short window between now and when we start colonizing space. Most likely it will happen outside our galaxy.

predictedNO 1y

@StevenK https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iwWjBH2rBF7ExXeEG/replicating-and-extending-the-grabby-aliens-model

I feel like this is going to be biased towards YES because it's presently likely to pay out sooner than NO. We definitely aren't gonna go knock on the door at Alpha Centauri any time soon, but possibly they could be here next week.

What counts as contact? is comunication enough?

@FranklinBaldo No, communication isn't enough for first contact here, though I can see and probably make a good case for why it should.

bought Ṁ10 NO from 61% to 55% 1y

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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

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