I started Manifold back in November, and became a top 100 creator on my 40th day. Recently I just breached the top 20 on my 100th day. Now that I'm finally at the endgame, how many of the current leaderboard creators will I be able to overtake, despite having way less mana and history? Tune in to find out!
EDIT: Top 3 on 180th day!
EDIT: #2 on 330th day!
Also: /strutheo/will-i-slay-all-20-top-creators-by
Link: https://manifold.markets/leaderboards
1,000
3.00"abusing a mana-printing exploit"
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-btes-secret-plan-work#x5aqw9f39t
hit 50k!
eighteen
top 3 on 180th day
@PlasmaBallin So I see this as somewhat true, but also if you won't add responses for 250 mana, why would you create your own markets where it costs 250 mana to create them? Has it just killed off all markets?
@Fedor The pivot is expected by many, including me and plasma I think, to kill off most markets in general. A market needs to have a huge amount of trading volume to be profitable now. The most profitable markets can probably survive but anything that was barely profitable before should now be extremely unprofitable, and that describes the vast majority of markets on the website
Has it just killed off all markets?
To some extent, yes. I don't know if there's a way to track the market creation rate, but I would be shocked if it didn't decrease by at least a factor of two post-pivot (I think the actual factor by which it decreases will be much larger, probably around an order of magnitude). But [add responses] will be hit especially hard because those rely not just on the creator, but also the traders, to spend mana. Plus, the total cost of any free response market is going to be much much higher than the cost of a binary market.
@strutheo So, my most popular market type 'what happens at X formula 1 weekend' gets 20-35 traders. My last one would now cost like ~4000 mana to create, and it raised a total of 50 in fees, so those are to be severely restricted.
