On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2025 Atlantic season storms reach?
17
Ṁ31kNov 30
19%
Will Fernand reach Category 1 wind speeds?
5%
Will Fernand reach Category 2 wind speeds?
4%
Will Fernand reach Category 3 wind speeds?
3%
Will Fernand reach Category 4 wind speeds?
2%
Will Fernand reach Category 5 wind speeds?
46%
Will Gabrielle reach Category 1 wind speeds?
26%
Will Gabrielle reach Category 2 wind speeds?
16%
Will Gabrielle reach Category 3 wind speeds?
11%
Will Gabrielle reach Category 4 wind speeds?
8%
Will Gabrielle reach Category 5 wind speeds?
60%
Will Humberto reach Category 1 wind speeds?
45%
Will Humberto reach Category 2 wind speeds?
40%
Will Humberto reach Category 3 wind speeds?
34%
Will Humberto reach Category 4 wind speeds?
10%
Will Humberto reach Category 5 wind speeds?
66%
Will Imelda reach Category 1 wind speeds?
50%
Will Imelda reach Category 2 wind speeds?
49%
Will Imelda reach Category 3 wind speeds?
45%
Will Imelda reach Category 4 wind speeds?
8%
Will Imelda reach Category 5 wind speeds?
Each storm/category will be considered a separate YES/NO market, resolved via reporting from https://weather.com/.
Markets will resolve YES within 48 hours of the reported Category upgrade. Markets will resolve NO within 48 hours of the reported dissipation of a named storm or on November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM EST, whichever comes first.
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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/161520.shtml
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A
CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
Dexter never became a hurricane so can also resolve.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/
@ovals
Still waiting for Dexter to wind down as Erin becomes a Category 1
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