Which 2025 tropical cyclone names will be used for hurricanes? That is, many or all of these names will be used for tropical cyclones, which of those will become hurricanes?
This is specifically about the northern Atlantic hurricane season.
Update 2025-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be the definitive source for determining if a tropical cyclone became a hurricane.
1,000
3.00
Google's tracks until 06Z showed a cat 1 likely but with the 12Z and 18Z runs they seem to have dropped off a cliff and are near 40% now (with genesis chances into a TS still much higher than other ensembles).
The 18Z run shows genesis slightly N or NE of earlier runs, leaving it less time to develop over the exceptionally high SSTs and there is less spread to the NW later on where some of the more westward members were recurving over higher OHC.
06Z:
18Z:
Some disagreement about how sharply it will recurve (Google is the early, more easterly one, EPS has some spread covering both, but favors a track that reaches further west before recurving)...
Andrea has dissipated to remnant low. Only a tropical storm
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/al01/al012025.discus.003.shtml
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ANDREA.shtml?
