Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
28
Ṁ22k
2030
15%
chance

i will resolve this market according to my subjective opinion. i will try to consider and understand the opinions of people commenting on this market.

i will not trade on this market.

if any of the conditions below apply for >=7 days before 2030, the market resolves "yes".

if russia occupies kyiv or control it militarily for >=7 days this market resolves "yes".

if ukraine gov seems very pro russia to me in or before 2030, i will then resolve to "yes".

  • Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the condition "if russia occupies kyiv or control it militarily for >=7 days this market resolves 'yes'", the >=7 days must be consecutive.

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just double checked by reading wikipedia, and it does seem to me like >75% of ukrainian are not pro russia.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

For your criteria of occupying Kyiv for at least seven days, do the days have to be consecutive?

Your Russian is showing. Please edit to "Kyiv".

@MaxA : thanks for the 'Please edit to "Kyiv".' part of your comment

@Nik how would Russia aligned Ukrainian govnt or a coup resolve?

@spider : if I look at current info which comvince me that currently >75% of people in ukraine are not pro russia, and that ukraine gov seems very pro russia to me in 2030, i will then resolve to "yes".

@SemioticRivalry : updated the description, let me know if you think this doesnt follow the spirit of the deal / what was discussed.

@nikthink fine with me :)

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