Will language models solve cryptic crosswords by end of 2026?
Plus
14
Ṁ3292027
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If a large language model can solve >90% of clues from Financial Times cryptic crosswords then yes otherwise no. Crossword layout as context is allowed.
Here's an example FT crossword:
For example, 2 down is "Giant pig, including tail, served up (7)". Pig is "hog", put tail inside to get "htailog" then reverse it to get "goliath".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
In isolation or given the crossword layout as context?
I would argue that 90% of the challenge is eliminated by having the crossword as context (number of letters, positions of letters). In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if many cryptic crosswords could be solved without the clues - just the crossword itself.
Without the crossword layout, I think there is a high degree of ambiguity and 90% might be impossible.
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
62% chance
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
37% chance
Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?
67% chance
Will Meta release an open source language model that outperforms GPT-4 by the end of 2024
67% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
68% chance
Will 'jailbreaks' in large language models be solved in principle by the end of 2024?
6% chance
Will an Open-Ended Embodied Agent with Large Language Models be able to complete The Witness (2016) by 2024?
32% chance
Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?
72% chance
Will AI be able to solve easy odd-one-out riddles by 2025?
73% chance