One possibility not included in these options is that Ukraine will control some territory that was previously Russian, but there will still be a Russia.

My prediction is that Manifold users will underestimate the odds of Russia holding more territory in Eastern Ukraine.

This is because West cares more about things surrounding Eastern Ukraine, such as public opinion and information warfare, successfully driving Russia out of Kyiv and central Ukraine, and other factors, than territory control in Eastern Ukraine. This limits the usefulness of Eastern Ukraine as a Schelling point for countries around the world to assess how Western power has changed over the decades as corruption and stagnation sets in governments everywhere (for example, economic strength and stability are well-known to be great indicators of how US-China affairs are going, much better than other factors like naval presence).

The poll options don't mention Donetsk People's Republic, which has been effectively controlled by Russia since 2014, and officially since 2022. Should we interpret "Crimea" as "Crimea and DPR" in all the option ?

Are we at the breaking point? /marktwse/will-eu-approve-50-billion-aid-pack

“'Those discussions [about peace talks] are starting... '

Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia...

... aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s position in any future negotiation.

In Politico, December 27 [https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211]

Arbitrage with my market - 2030+ and also if we're getting confident that Russia is going to gain territory, presumably that means we're getting closer to the end I would have thought.

@Inimicizie @AlexandreK thoughts?

Some arguments for "No cease-fire"?

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ramping-up-war-production/32658857.html

I made a market that uses the new unlinked multiple choice markets to get a more granular view of the possible borders: https://manifold.markets/Shump/after-the-war-in-ukraine-ends-which

After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions will be held by Ukraine (unlinked free response)?

If a region is partially held, resolves to the % in land area that is held by Ukraine. The war will end when the linked Wikipedia page shows an end date (excluding vandalism, and only after some time has passed). Note that this will probably require more than just a ceasefire. Feel free to add a region, but invalid answers will be N/Aed

Also, my policy is to never bet on long-term markets, but this market (not the linked one) is terribly wrongly priced. I really hope it's as positive as this market shows, but I think bettors are high on copium.

@Shump That’s where markets are the most valuable, when the beliefs are widely different.

How do people think Ukraine will afford to keep the war going until 2030? Do people think US will keep bankrolling them until then?

@Daniel_MC no cease fire doesn't mean both sides still have fully operational armies, it can turn into guerilla warfare too

@ErickBall fair enough. Not sure how well the planes of Ukraine work for guerrilla warfare.

@Daniel_MC it's in America's interest for Ukraine to win and not to just see Ukraine crumble and Russia knocking on Europe's door.

@SebastianLatting Unless the US is pivoting to Asia and starts caring less about Europe. But it’s hard to estimate the timescale for that

What is clear is that the war in Ukraine is no longer a confrontation between two countries, Russia is trying to break the post-World War II order, so Russia is against the whole freedom world, whether it is the economic strength of the country, or the military strength, Russia can not compete with the freedom world，So the war went on and Russia only recognized ‘’Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine‘’，Finally had no choice but to withdraw.But Russia is a sovereign state,so it will keep the all the current territory.

..., or the military strength, Russia can not compete with the freedom world

Citation needed; for instance, what countries have what ammunition reserves.

>Russia can not compete with the freedom world

This is if the free world would go all in into war economics, which will most likely not happen..

Amazed by how many people say the war won't have a 6 month cease fire by 2030 so have made my own market for when the invasion will end:

https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/when-will-the-russian-invasion-of-u?r=RGFuaWVsX01D

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end?

I will resolve based on the (de facto) end date on this Wikipedia page: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine I will wait until the end date has been the same for a full 24 hour period. If there's any doubt I will resolve in line with the spirit of the question. [image]I may change the criteria to clarify questions or fix flaws. I will not bet in this market.

Unlikely but possible options not included: 1) a new sovereign state forms that is controlled by neither country 2) some other power controls a significant portion of territory.

Crimea has been an independent state before (1441-1783).

@mariopasquato If Crimea becomes an independent state we will probably be able to determine which side it is on. I would consider Belarus like Russia and Rumania like Ukraine. Crimea under Turkish control would be tricky though.

Does that sound like a clearer resolution criterium?

@marktweise Yeah thanks. Note btw that when the Khanate of Crimea existed it was precisely a client state of the Ottoman Empire, so Turkey.