Will bears be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2040? | Manifold

Will bears be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2040?

Basic

9

Ṁ135

2031

39%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to YES if brown bears (Ursus arctos) are introduced to the wild anywhere in the UK (so overseas territories do not count) by the end of 2040. Anywhere part of the UK in 2023 counts, e.g. if Scotland becomes independent then reintroduces bears, this will resolve to YES. Illegal reintroductions only count if they lead to a self-sustaining population, as has happened with beavers (i.e. someone releasing a single individual does not count).

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

predictedYES

How about if bears (or other relevant animals in your markets) are released into a huge but ultimately restricted area of Scotland? (ie there is a fence or other method to prevent predators leaving a certain territory)

@JoshuaWilkes I think I would count that as YES (the BBC uses "reintroduced wild bison" to describe a similiar situation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-62664612).

Canterbury bison environment near Blean could be expanded

Rangers say the bison, introduced in July, are already restoring the woods to their ancient state.

Related questions

Will wolves be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2035?

Will Grizzly Bears be removed from the endangered-species list for any U.S. ecosystem by EOY 2024?

Will wild Reindeer/Caribou return to the British Isles by 2060?

Will wild moose return to the British Isles by 2060

Will the UK rejoin the European Union by 2040?

Will lynx be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2030?

Will there be Giant Pandas in a zoo in the United Kingdom on December 31st 2024?

Will UK rejoin the European Union before 2050?

Will the red backed shrike be a “ reintroduced” or “ resident” breeder in the UK by 2050?

Which extinct species will be brought back to life by 2037?

Related questions

Will wolves be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2035?

Will lynx be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2030?

Will Grizzly Bears be removed from the endangered-species list for any U.S. ecosystem by EOY 2024?

Will there be Giant Pandas in a zoo in the United Kingdom on December 31st 2024?

Will wild Reindeer/Caribou return to the British Isles by 2060?

Will UK rejoin the European Union before 2050?

Will wild moose return to the British Isles by 2060

Will the red backed shrike be a “ reintroduced” or “ resident” breeder in the UK by 2050?

Will the UK rejoin the European Union by 2040?

Which extinct species will be brought back to life by 2037?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules