On August 26th, Eliezer tweeted
(https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1563282607315382273):
In 2-4 years, if we're still alive, anytime you see a video this beautiful, your first thought will be to wonder whether it's real or if the AI's prompt was "beautiful video of 15 different moth species flapping their wings, professional photography, 8k, trending on Twitter".
Will this tweet hold up? (The part about AI video generation, not about whether we'll all be dead in 2-4 years.) Giving max date range to be generous.
This market resolves YES if at close (end of 2026) my subjective perception is that this was a good take--e.g., AI-generated video really is that good--and NO if it seems like Eliezer was importantly wrong about something, e.g., AI-generated video still sucks, or still couldn't be the cause for serious doubt about whether some random moth footage was made with a camera or not.
I reserve the right to resolve to an early YES if it turns out Eliezer was obviously correct before the close date. I won't dock points if he ends up having been too conservative, e.g., a new model comes out in 6 months with perfect video generation capabilities.
I guess this market resolves N/A if we all die, but, well, y'know.
Betting policy: I will not bet in this market (any more than I already have, and I've long sold all my shares).
1,000
3.00I have yet to see an AI video that is comparably beautiful to the original video? Not making an argument for a NO resolution, just curious if anyone's seen anything that good from AI.
@jacksonpolack I think the best way to settle this would be for someone to go and actually generate a similar video of months, that would remove much of the ambiguity.
@jacksonpolack I agree. I'm confident we get there, but I think it would be good to post a few specific examples in the comments before a Yes resolution.
honestly I think would be less than 85% (and potentially much less but I haven't thought about it much) if it's based on my standards for beauty, rather than a general standard, but my preferences in things like this are extremely titled towards accurate details and how they combine vs the average. although it might be higher if enough people had preferences similar to mine such that the models were trained with that in mind!
@jacksonpolack Is 85% where you think it is for standards like "can figure it out" or for "first thought" / "cause for serious doubt"? Are those different standards for you?
Edit: I guess I didn't do this right. How can I post a GIF or video?
Back when Sora came out, I tried to make this work. This was by far my best attempt, and I don't think it's close to the quality of the tweet. Maybe newer models would do better.
(I do think this should resolve yes, even if moths or slow-mo or whatever else is hard, many things are at the level)
@journcy Call it? I looked back at the old moth video, and if I was seeing it today, I'd be wondering about AI. (Because of how it's a series of short clips.)
Respectfully, I disagree. Videos created by AI today are not holding up to the original moth video, and certainly people generally aren't all looking at videos posted online and thinking that they're AI. I don't think I have any chance of stopping this market from resolving YES, but I do think that it's a mistake and people who think it should resolve now should examine if they have AI blinders on.
@EliezerYudkowsky I'm currently planning to wait to the end of the year to resolve, just so I'm not doing it based on any one seemingly spectacular clip. But I don't expect my resolution to surprise the market.
Apparently this is AI. I didn't think twice about it the first time I saw:
seems that vidgen has begun to cross a threshold
Before too long we'll have real time, interactive versions where one specify a kind of location to drop in to, then can walk about, talk to inhabitants, prompt a storyline, prompt items into existence, etc.
The version of Odyssey that's coming out in a couple weeks is an early version
want to read the news before it happens? just read jim comments
@jim This is starting to get into the range where I myself would ask the market if it was time to call it.
@jim As a NO holder I'm happy resolving this YES on tweets like this. The quality falls short of the bar set by the moth video but it's close enough that it induces heavy skepticism.
EDIT: Veo really is a huge leap in capabilities.