Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?
Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?
➕
Plus
15
Ṁ673
2030
69%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

Is this for only 2030 as the title suggests, or will it also resolve Yes if it happens earlier than that?

1y

@Mqrius I will go for “spirit of the market” rather than “overly literal interpretation of the question” for this one, so will resolve YES if it happens before 2030

predictedNO 1y

What happened this morning?

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules