(made this market for a specific person on discord who was claiming that)
Specifically: will the space industry completely collapse OR will global temperature increase such that space travel is impossible before 2030? The collapse must be complete - 50% decrease in market cap might be called a collapse in other contexts, but here the collapse must be complete enough to effectively prevent space travel for something like a decade.
Not including satellites already in space.
1,000
3.00Just to be compeltely sure, you mean the space industry in its entirety, not just the private sector?
e.g. it doesn't matter if SpaceX (say) and every other space-based private company goes bust, if NASA is still running and continues with its space mission as planned then this resolves NO?
Indeed, NASA might fail or delay some of those missions, but as long as they get something (even just one successful launch) out by 2034 (within the next decade) you'll reoslve it as NO?
Or does "Space Travel" refer to people?
e.g. if NASA were to cancel all missions except for a single probe to orbit Saturn in 2031, does that count as propping up the "space industry" from "collapse"?
@BoltonBailey - it seems like an odd idea, yeah.
Like in principle, a high enough temperature could, say, be such an economic strain that the will to comit resources to continue with spaces missions falters. (e.g. enough crop failures might cause the government to cut space program funding in favour of some sort of farm-relief fund, and/or millionaries to invest in bunkers rather than private trips to space or whatever).
But it seems like a oddly specific thing to argue for, and that would be a political/economic impossibility, not a literal physical impossibility.
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In some super extreme case we could imagine climate change leading to more storms or something, or in some doomsday feedback loop scenario we all die from something.
But I don't think those total disasters are very likely, and even if they were likely, I don't forsee them happening by 2030.