Data:

• Number of companies working on space hotels: 4+

• Number of companies that have announced plans to launch space hotels in the early 2030s: 2

• Earliest planned launch date: 2024

Analysis:

The fact that there are multiple companies working on space hotels, and that some of them have already announced plans to launch their hotels in the early 2030s, suggests that it is probable that a space hotel will be operational before 2035. However, it is important to note that there are a number of challenges that need to be overcome before space hotels can become a reality, including the cost of development and launch, and the need to develop new technologies for life support and transportation in space.

Conclusion:

Based on the available data and analysis, it is reasonable to conclude that the probability of a space hotel being operational before 2035 is high.

Reference:

• Inside the space hotel scheduled to open in 2025 (CNN, November 7, 2023): https://krdo.com/entertainment/cnn-style/2022/05/02/inside-the-space-hotel-scheduled-to-open-in-2025/

• Axiom Space raises $130 million to develop commercial space station (SpaceNews, January 26, 2023): https://interestingengineering.com/culture/worlds-first-commercial-space-station-130-million

• Space tourism is closer than ever before (The Verge, February 10, 2023): https://theconversation.com/space-tourism-20-years-in-the-making-is-finally-ready-for-launch-159606

• Space hotels: What to expect in the next decade (Space.com, March 8, 2023): https://nypost.com/2021/03/01/first-ever-space-hotel-slated-to-be-operational-by-2027/

• The future of space tourism: What's next for space hotels? (Forbes, April 12, 2023): https://www.cntraveler.com/story/space-hotels-future-of-travel

@saraf3ab Thanks, ChatGPT.

@SG one day GPT will learn that putting any weight on hype articles from space startups is not a winning strategy

Does it count if it just serves as a hotel temporarily? For example, what if the ISS became a hotel for a few months when it is decommissioned?

@calderknight If ISS became a full-service commercial hotel, it would count. If it had a single guest as a stunt before being decommissioned, it wouldn't. Anything in between, I would have to see the specifics...

The hotel has to stay in space, right? It doesn't count as a hotel if you go up in a shuttle, the shuttle is in space for two days, and then you come back?

@Joshua Correct.

@SG What exactly is the ISS currently lacking in order to qualify as a hotel for this question?

NASA already lets you stay on the ISS for $35,000 per day, this includes food and all kinds of necessary supplies. I think the only thing that's missing is sleeping quarters, because the limited sleeping places on the ISS are taken up by the permanent residents; space tourists visiting the ISS (for example with Axiom Space) will probably sleep in their docked Dragon spacecraft instead.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/7/18656280/nasa-space-station-private-astronauts-commercial-business

NASA is opening the space station to commercial business and more private astronauts

NASA executives announced that the space agency will open up parts of the International Space Station to more commercial opportunities, allowing companies unprecedented use of the space station’s facilities, including filming commercials or movies against the backdrop of space. NASA is also calling on the private space industry to send in ideas for habitats and modules that can be attached to the space station semi-permanently.

@dp9000 I think a question about when the first purpose-built space hotel becomes operational might be more interesting