Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.
Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.
This question has a list of 10 current candidates, and resolves to "Someone else" if the winner is anyone else.
I recommend the newer and bigger market here with more options:
1,000
3.00Provisionally resolved as per the rules above. If you want more info see comment at https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964#pa78oh6vvs
I have no liquidity but https://manifold.markets/Peter6ff6/will-trump-win-us-election-in-2024 is available if anyone wants free money.
@Jakob One possibility is that Trump has suddenly surged in popularity by mobilizing the youth sector. That would be a neat magic trick but I think its unlikely that Trump has picked up more than 1% in the last month.
Another possibility is that election betting sites are being gamed and are no longer attempting to predict the outcome. People have been treating these markets like polls instead of prediction markets and most of the crypto based markets have a lot of Trump supporting users.
Crypto markets are not unfamiliar with pump and dump schemes so I would treat this the way you would treat any other pump and dump.
@Tumbles Drain my balance and the next day I will take my daily loans and put those limit orders right back up. They will stand strong. Like a wall. A strong wall. A very strong, MAGA sort of wall.
I'd like to get a bit more traffic to this questions of mine
(not for the mana, I'm just very interested in how people rate this (terrifying?) probability)
https://manifold.markets/Flekkie/will-trump-still-be-president-in-ju?r=Rmxla2tpZ
There's been consistently a few % of arb potential with these markets for the past few days. I've been picking up the free money but running low on balance now, so if anybody else wants to get in on it, it's all yours.
(Buy YES on both Donald Trump and Joe Biden on this market. Buy NO on both of the other markets. Guaranteed profits. Opportunity will go away once the users with limit orders realise they can make better profits by moving them to other markets.)
There are of course lots of other markets to arb, but at the time of posting these two had the best limit orders to take advantage of.
@Fion Those markets are now arbed about as much as they can be. I only made about M$40 of profit off of them, and had to put in around M$6000, so not exactly a huge win, but a little bit of free profit is nice.
Yikes
